#28 Tampa Bay Rays: The Top 3 Pitchers Drafted Since 2013

As we head into the 2024 Major League Baseball (MLB) season, the Tampa Bay Rays are among the most successful teams in the league, ranking 4th in total wins since 2013. Despite operating with one of the smallest payrolls, the Rays have consistently built winning teams, making the playoffs in five of the last six seasons.

Their approach to constructing pitching staffs has been both innovative and influential, setting trends across the league. From pioneering the use of "openers" to relying on a rotation of high-velocity arms, the Rays have redefined pitching strategies. Since 2021, the Rays have relied on an average of 34.5 pitchers per season to meet their innings demand.

Yet, while this approach has generated on-field success, it has not been without its challenges, particularly when it comes to developing traditional starting pitchers. This case study, which examines the top three pitchers drafted by the Rays since 2013, reveals that only one of these players has successfully developed into a traditional starter.

Injury Rate: 38%

A major drawback of the Rays' approach has been the high rate of injuries among their pitchers. Since 2013, Tampa Bay ranks 4th in total days missed by MLB pitchers, with 12% of their annual payroll allocated to injured players.

Among the 34 pitchers analyzed in this study, 17 arm injuries occurred among 13 pitchers, resulting in 10 surgeries. On average, these pitchers managed 294.5 innings before requiring surgery.

Shane McClanahan, the most successful pitcher in this study, underwent Tommy John surgery in 2023, highlighting the ongoing challenges faced by Rays pitchers.

Notably, Brendan McKay, the 4th overall pick in the 2017 MLB Draft, has endured a series of setbacks, including shoulder surgery, thoracic outlet syndrome, and Tommy John surgery. McKay has been sidelined for most of the 2024 season due to recurring arm issues.

High school draftees Michael Mercado (2017) and Nick Bitsko (2020) also faced early challenges—Mercado underwent shoulder surgery after just 71 innings, while Bitsko required surgery just months after being drafted.

MLB Pitchers: 7

The Rays' unconventional development strategy has produced seven MLB pitchers from their top three draft picks since 2013, including Ryne Stanek (2013), Brent Honeywell Jr. (2014), Easton McGee (2016), Brendan McKay (2017), and Shane McClanahan (2018). Of these pitchers, McClanahan has been the standout, throwing 404 of the Rays' total 607 MLB innings produced by this group.

However, beyond McClanahan, the Rays have struggled to develop another reliable starting pitcher from their recent drafts, and no pitcher drafted since 2019 has progressed to the major league roster.

Cost Efficiency: $60,142 per MLB Inning Pitched

In terms of return on investment, the Rays' initial signing bonuses equate to approximately $60,142 per MLB inning pitched, ranking them 25th among MLB teams. Between 2013 and 2020, the Rays invested over $31 million in signing bonuses, averaging $1.4 million per player. Since 2021, their spending has dropped significantly, with $4.1 million spent at an average bonus of $348,674.

Conclusion: Success and the Challenges of an Unconventional Approach

The Tampa Bay Rays have consistently achieved success despite their small payroll, largely thanks to their innovative pitching strategies. However, this approach comes with significant drawbacks, including a high rate of injuries and a lack of traditional starting pitchers emerging from their system.