#29 Houston Astros: The Top 3 Pitchers Drafted Since 2013
#29 Houston Astros: The Top 3 Pitchers Drafted Since 2013
The Houston Astros have been a model of consistency in Major League Baseball (MLB) for nearly a decade, largely due to the depth and value they've received from their starting rotation. Despite this, it may come as a surprise that the Astros rank in the bottom tier when it comes to developing their top 3 drafted pitchers each year, as revealed in this ongoing case study.
Rotation Built from Multiple Sources
The Astros' rotation success has been driven by a combination of acquisitions and internal development. Key rotation members like Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and Zack Greinke were acquired through trades, while impactful pitchers such as Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, and Jose Urquidy were signed as undrafted free agents and developed within the organization. These pitchers, while contributing significantly to the team’s success, fall outside the scope of this study, which focuses on drafted talent. Nevertheless, their development highlights the organization's broader ability to identify and nurture pitching talent.
Additionally, Lance McCullers, drafted in 2012, has played an important role in the Astros' success over the years. However, because he was selected just before the 2013 draft cut-off, he narrowly missed inclusion in this analysis.
Injury Rate: 21%
One notable aspect of the Astros' pitcher development is their success in keeping their top draft picks healthy. The Astros have one of the lowest injury rates among MLB organizations, with only 21% of their top 3 drafted pitchers suffering arm injuries. Out of the 32 pitchers studied, seven experienced arm injuries, resulting in five surgeries, with an average of 233 innings pitched before surgery.
Importantly, no major arm injuries have occurred since Blair Henley underwent Tommy John surgery in 2022. Other notable surgeries include those of Riley Ferrell (drafted 2015), Forrest Whitley (2016), and Corbin Martin (2017). This low injury rate is a positive indicator of the Astros' focus on pitcher health and long-term development.
MLB Pitchers: 7
Since 2013, seven of the Astros' top three drafted pitchers have reached the major leagues: Kent Emanuel, Forrest Whitley, Corbin Martin, Tyler Ivey, Hunter Brown, and Blair Henley. Among them, Hunter Brown has been the standout, accounting for 86% of the 431 total innings pitched by these pitchers at the MLB level. Brown's emergence as a reliable arm is a bright spot for the Astros and underscores their ability to develop impactful pitchers capable of contributing at the highest level.
Cost Efficiency: $82,063 Per MLB Inning Pitched
In terms of cost efficiency, the Astros rank lower compared to other organizations. The team has spent an average of $82,063 per MLB inning pitched by its top three drafted pitchers since 2013—ranking last in return on investment. Pitchers such as Mark Appel, Riley Ferrell, Forrest Whitley, and J.B. Bukauskas received over $14 million in signing bonuses but have collectively contributed just 0.2 innings for Houston. While this statistic may appear concerning, it should be considered alongside the team's strategic investments in undrafted talent and trades, which have contributed significantly to the Astros' overall success.
Trading Away Talent
Like the New York Mets, the Astros have frequently traded away their top pitching prospects in exchange for proven talent. There have been ten notable trades involving pitchers drafted in the top three rounds, impacting the development of their draft picks. Notable examples include Mark Appel, who was traded to the Philadelphia Phillies in 2015 for Ken Giles after receiving a $6.3 million signing bonus, and J.B. Bukauskas, who was traded in 2019 for Zack Greinke after receiving a $3.6 million bonus. These trades have played a critical role in bolstering the Astros' roster, allowing them to acquire high-impact players during playoff pushes.
Final Takeaway
The Houston Astros have built one of the most successful rotations in recent history, utilizing a multifaceted approach that blends talent from trades, undrafted signings, and drafted prospects. While the organization ranks in the bottom tier for developing top draft picks into impactful major league starters, it has managed to achieve remarkable success by leveraging its broader development strategy.
The emergence of Hunter Brown as a reliable MLB arm is a promising sign for the future, and the team's ability to maintain a low injury rate is a testament to their commitment to pitcher health. As the game evolves, the Astros continue to innovate in their approach to pitcher development, and their successes offer valuable lessons for organizations across the league.
This article is part of our ongoing case study that assesses how effectively MLB organizations develop their top pitching prospects. Stay tuned as we continue to break down each team's performance.
