#27 Toronto Blue Jays: The Top 3 Pitchers Drafted Since 2013

Case Studies
Written By DVS Baseball

Since selecting Alek Manoah as their first pitcher in 2019, the Toronto Blue Jays have faced significant challenges with arm health among their drafted pitchers. Out of the last 18 pitchers drafted, including Manoah, eight have undergone arm surgery while with the Blue Jays organization.

Injury Trends and Timelines

The average time to surgery for these pitchers was just 213 innings (including both college and professional levels). This trend mirrors that of several other Major League Baseball (MLB) organizations, where drafted pitchers often undergo arm surgery early in their professional careers.

Despite these setbacks, Alek Manoah stands out as one of the few successes, making it as a top-three starter at the MLB level, albeit over a relatively small sample size. With continued development, the Blue Jays will be hopeful for additional success stories in the near future.

Injury Rate: 44%

Nearly half of the pitchers in this case study (44%) have experienced arm injuries or required surgery while with the Blue Jays. Specifically, there were 17 recorded arm injuries and 11 surgeries, with an average time to surgery of 196 innings pitched. Among high school pitchers, the average time to surgery was just 76 professional innings, highlighting an ongoing concern about the rapid breakdown of younger arms.

Pitchers Reaching MLB: 6

Six pitchers drafted by the Blue Jays since 2013 have reached the MLB level:

  • Patrick Murphy (2013)

  • Sean Reid-Foley (2014)

  • T.J. Zeuch (2016)

  • Nate Pearson (2017)

  • Hagen Danner (2017)

  • Alek Manoah (2019)

Notably, Alek Manoah has thrown 66% of the MLB innings logged by all these pitchers, demonstrating his value to the organization.

Total MLB Innings Pitched: 607

Alek Manoah has been a standout performer, pitching 420 innings at the MLB level for the Blue Jays. Despite the injuries, Manoah has proven himself as a reliable top-three starter when healthy. Among the 11 pitchers who underwent arm surgery, Manoah remains the only one to throw even a single MLB inning.

Cost Efficiency: $/MLB IP

To date, the Blue Jays' initial investment in signing bonuses translates to approximately $60,142 per MLB inning pitched. This places the organization 26th in return on investment for MLB innings—a figure that highlights the challenges they’ve faced in developing durable pitchers.

DVS Baseball

DVS Baseball, which stands for Delivery Value System, was created in light of the current epidemic of throwing-related injuries in the game of baseball.  The surgery rate among pitchers has continued to rise over the past decade due to various culture-related factors, including an increased emphasis on throwing velocity, college scholarships, and year-round playing.  In an effort to find answers as to why some pitchers get hurt and others do not, we began a formal study that analyzed mechanical patterns from past and current MLB Pitchers. Our research, now published in Orthopedics Medical Journal, continues to evolve to help MLB Organizations understand a pitcher’s true value. Additionally, we implement the DVS Baseball pitching development program for pitchers to extend their longevity, decrease injury risk, and maximize performance in games. .

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