Postseason Success Relies on Quality Starts—So Where Are MLB’s Young Durable Aces?

Last night, Gerrit Cole had a different look in his eyes. The New York Yankees ace delivered a clutch performance to advance his team to the ALCS, showcasing not only his dominance on the mound but also his leadership in defending a teammate during a benches-clearing moment.

The defining moment came in the 6th inning, a scene perfectly narrated by broadcasters Ron Darling and Bob Costas:

Ron Darling: “Cole now flipping the lineup over to the third time. When he’s faced a team a third time through the order, the batting average is .158 vs. Cole this season.”

Bob Costas: “So he’s turned that idea on its head.”

Darling: “That’s right.”

Costas: “Usually, it’s, ‘Oh, the dreaded third time through the order—better get the bullpen ready.’ Not when Cole is on the mound.”

Cole's mastery of the dreaded third time through the order reflects a rare quality in today’s game: durability. Quality starts, once a hallmark of successful pitching, are becoming increasingly rare. But in the high-stakes environment of the MLB playoffs, they remain pivotal.

Of the 25 postseason games so far, there have been 12 quality starts (6+ IP, ≤3 ER), with 9 leading to victories. The two losses following quality starts were the result of blown saves after the starters exited. This is a testament to how critical longevity on the mound remains.

Saluting This Postseason’s Quality Starts

A special acknowledgment goes to Gerrit Cole for his outstanding performance. He joins a select group of pitchers who have delivered quality starts this postseason: Tarik Skubal, Cole Ragans, Corbin Burnes, Luis Severino, Michael King, Jose Quintana, Zack Wheeler, Yu Darvish, and Sean Manaea. Notably, Skubal and Severino have each achieved two such starts, demonstrating their consistency and resilience.

A tip of the hat also goes to the New York Mets, who have managed quality starts from three different pitchers with an average age of 32. But their success highlights a growing concern across MLB: where are the young, durable starters today?

The Disappearing Young Starter

The Detroit Tigers offer a striking contrast. Tarik Skubal, at just 27 years old, is treated as a traditional starter, trusted to face lineups three times through the order. Meanwhile, the rest of the Tigers' staff is being managed creatively—an approach that has worked but underscores a broader issue. As the scarcity of young durable starters becomes more pronounced, teams are forced to adapt, finding value in unconventional strategies like bullpen games and short starts.

But imagine how much more exciting the playoffs would be with a healthy Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Glasnow, Tony Gonsolin, John Means, Grayson Rodriguez, or Shane Bieber in the mix. These pitchers, once viewed as the future of the game, are now on the sidelines—victims of the injury trends that plague the modern MLB starter.

The Case for Developing Durable Starters

As my ongoing case study shows, the next generation of pitchers is not being developed to handle the demands of a Major League Baseball schedule—especially when it comes to staying healthy. This growing gap is holding back the future of the game, as fewer young starters are capable of delivering consistent, deep outings.

The postseason highlights this reality. While seasoned veterans like Gerrit Cole continue to thrive, we’re left asking, “Where are the young arms that can carry this tradition forward?”

The game of baseball deserves a future where young pitchers are not only capable of high-velocity strikeouts but also durable enough to last deep into games, even in the pressure cooker of the postseason.