#24 San Diego Padres: The Top 3 Pitchers Drafted Since 2013

Written By DVS Baseball

As we head into the 2024 Major League Baseball (MLB) season, the San Diego Padres find themselves in a unique position. Ranked 21st in total wins since 2013 (with 636 victories), the team has consistently been competitive. However, injuries have plagued the pitching staff, with the Padres leading the league in days missed by injured pitchers (10,791) and ranking 13th in payroll spent on injured players (10.05%).

The Padres’ Pitching Prospect Pipeline

A significant trend within the Padres’ organization has been the movement of top pitching prospects, many of whom have been traded away before making a substantial impact at the Major League level.

Among their recent top prospects, Adam Mazur, drafted in 2022, made a brief appearance for the Padres during the 2024 season before being traded to the Miami Marlins. He was dealt alongside fellow 2022 draftee Robby Snelling, continuing a trend of trading away high-profile arms.

This is not a new pattern for the Padres. Over the years, the team has dealt several notable prospects, including Eric Lauer (2016), Cal Quantrill (2016), MacKenzie Gore (2017), Ryan Weathers (2018), Justin Lange (2020), and Cole Wilcox (2020). These trades were made with the goal of bolstering the Major League roster for short-term success, often in pursuit of playoff contention.

Collectively, these pitchers received $27 million in signing bonuses but combined for only 578 MLB innings with the Padres. As the team continues to push for postseason success, aiming to advance past their division rival Dodgers and into the NLCS, it's worth noting that their starting rotation currently consists entirely of pitchers acquired from outside the organization.

Injury Rate: 19%

The Padres boast the lowest injury rate in the current case study at 19%. This is an impressive feat, but it hasn’t come without its challenges.

The organization has recorded eight arm injuries and five arm surgeries among their pitching prospects, with an average of 197 innings pitched before surgery was required. Recent draft picks, including Dylan Lesko (14th overall in 2022) and Kannon Kemp (2023), suffered significant arm injuries shortly after being drafted, highlighting the ongoing risks that teams face, especially with pitchers drafted from 2019 onward.

MLB Pitchers Developed: 6

Six pitchers from this case study have reached the Major Leagues with the Padres, including:

  • Jacob Nix (2015)

  • Eric Lauer (2016)

  • Cal Quantrill (2016)

  • MacKenzie Gore (2017)

  • Ryan Weathers (2018)

  • Adam Mazur (2022)

Together, these six pitchers have thrown a total of 726 innings for the Padres. Despite their initial promise, none of these pitchers remain active on the team’s roster, largely due to trades and injuries.

Cost Efficiency – $68,653 per MLB Inning

In terms of return on investment, the Padres have invested an average of $68,653 per MLB inning pitched by their top three pitchers drafted since 2013. This ranks them 27th in the league for cost efficiency, reflecting a lower-than-expected return based on the amount spent in signing bonuses.

While the organization has shown a commitment to drafting highly talented arms with significant long-term potential, especially for the starting rotation, the frequent trades have hindered the development of these pitchers into top-tier starters within the organization. The result is a high volume of trades that have limited the potential impact these prospects could have had for the Padres.

Conclusion

The Padres’ strategy of trading away top pitching prospects for immediate roster upgrades has come at a cost. While the team has remained competitive, their long-term pitching depth has suffered as a result. As they continue to chase postseason success, it remains to be seen if the organization will pivot toward developing their top pitching talent in-house or continue relying on external acquisitions to fill their rotation.

The Padres' journey offers a cautionary tale about balancing short-term success with long-term development, especially when it comes to managing prized pitching prospects.

DVS Baseball

DVS Baseball, which stands for Delivery Value System, was created in light of the current epidemic of throwing-related injuries in the game of baseball.  The surgery rate among pitchers has continued to rise over the past decade due to various culture-related factors, including an increased emphasis on throwing velocity, college scholarships, and year-round playing.  In an effort to find answers as to why some pitchers get hurt and others do not, we began a formal study that analyzed mechanical patterns from past and current MLB Pitchers. Our research, now published in Orthopedics Medical Journal, continues to evolve to help MLB Organizations understand a pitcher’s true value. Additionally, we implement the DVS Baseball pitching development program for pitchers to extend their longevity, decrease injury risk, and maximize performance in games. .

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