Welcome to the New Era: Top Pitching Prospects as Glorified Long Relievers—The Shift Away from Traditional Starting Pitchers
Welcome to the Show, Paul Skenes!
Congratulations to Paul Skenes on a successful Major League Baseball (MLB) debut. As a number one overall pick, Skenes embodies both immense current talent and future potential. Ideally, he would be a workhorse for the Pittsburgh Pirates, leading their rotation, accumulating significant innings, and helping propel the team into playoff contention.
The Current State of Pitching Prospects
However, the reality for Skenes and his fellow top prospects is far different. They face strict pitch count limits and are confined to limited workloads. These restrictions are meant to monitor their recovery and maintain their health. Yet, this trend across baseball does not necessarily foster the development of starting pitchers nor ensure their long-term health—it merely caps their value to their teams and their future earning potential.
A Closer Look at the Numbers
Paul Skenes: Averaging 3.93 innings and 63 pitches per start.
Jackson Jobe: Averaging 3.24 innings and 58 pitches per start.
Cade Horton: Averaging 3.85 innings and 63 pitches per start.
Jacob Misiorowski: Averaging 3.7 innings and 70 pitches per start.
Rhett Lowder: Averaging 4.87 innings and 75 pitches per start.
Robby Snelling: Averaging 4.43 innings and 75 pitches per start.
Noah Schultz: Averaging 3.85 innings and 59 pitches per start.
Notably, none of these promising talents have reached the 100-pitch mark or exceeded six innings in any start this season. This pattern indicates a significant shift in job expectations for starting pitchers.
The Implications of Limited Pitch Counts
Pitch counts, though arbitrary, have increasingly been reduced over the years. Despite these limitations, the rate of injuries hasn't notably decreased, and the emergence of new household names in baseball cities is on the decline.
Moreover, with numerous analysts employed across the league to gain competitive edges, it seems there is a widespread adoption of a "copycat" system. This trend could have profound implications on a pitcher's future financial opportunities, particularly when negotiations for long-term contracts arise.
Changing the Game
For a shift in this conservative approach, we might need to see an MLB organization successfully develop and utilize three young starting pitchers who can redefine the norms. These pitchers would need to demonstrate sustained success and durability, proving that a more traditional usage of starting pitchers can still win games at the highest level.
This change is possible, yet it demands a shift in leadership and decision-making within the sport—a tall order, but not an impossible one.
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