In a quote from the article How the tigers plan to develop pitchers in the future, current Detroit Tigers beat writer Cody Stavhagen says, "In a game full of injuries and attrition, you need the majority of these prospects to reach their potential. And to build a bullpen and to have organization depth and the trade capital that can come as a result, you need more players capable of pitching in the big leagues."

I couldn't agree more with Cody's consensus. But how can we quantify how good an organization is at developing pitchers within their farm system? And, are the Tigers doing a good job? For example, what homegrown (drafted) pitcher has the Detroit Tigers developed into a front-line starter or dominant reliever, at the MLB level over the last decade?

The recent injuries to Tigers pitchers Casey Mize and Matt Manning illuminate a trend of MLB Organizations struggling to keep their top pitching prospects healthy. This comes not only from the new analytic era, but also for the drunken thirst for velocity has manifested over the last decade. As a result, pitchers, especially starters, are getting hurt more frequently with the infusion of more technology, more data, and more resources in pitching development.

In addition, there is a continual shift of removing traditional baseball coaches and scouts that have Milb or MLB service time out of player development in exchange for younger, less experienced coaches who are versed in data/analytics. Overall, I see a ton of confusion and misguided strategies that aren't functional by design. The shift from coaches to data has resulted in a line of pitchers waiting to get into the injured list club. You can give a player the best technology and data, but you have to be able to instill trust and implement value to develop the pitcher. It's a special bond between coach and player - a trusted voice.

As of today, there have been 125 pitchers on the injured list thus far, missing 1,807 days combined and costing MLB Organizations over 30 million dollars. We are two weeks into the season!

“As of today, there have been 125 pitchers on the injured list thus far, missing 1,807 days combined and costing MLB Organizations over 30 million dollars.”

— SPOTRAC DATA, 4/20/2022

Cody Stavhagen goes on to say in his 2020 article posted in the Athletic, "There is an armada of arms on the rise. It begins with the headline prospects — Mize and Manning, Alex Faedo, and Tarik Skubal. Even Franklin Perez and Joey Wentz. If all goes according to plan, the Tigers hope to have a dominant, homegrown pitching staff anchoring the major-league team in a few years." Let us take a closer look at the armada of arms, starting with the top three draft selections each year beginning in 2013.

THE ARMADA OF ARMS

Successful pitching development doesn't happen overnight; it may take several years before a pitcher begins to fulfill their actual value, but realistically, we can objectively scout growth as they progress each season. Essentially, any organization needs its top pitching prospects to stay healthy, to develop, to achieve a high-level performance, and add value add the top level.

For this article, I decided to examine over a decade of top three draft picks each season, starting with the 2013 MLB Draft. I used this starting point for two reasons. First, it’s a long period of time to see patterns/trends and allows enough time for the draft picks to mature into valuable contributors at the MLB Level. Second, it’s a few years before the implementation of the analytic era which started in Detroit around 2016. The table below indicates valuable information as it pertains to the initial bonus paid to each pitcher, career length with Tigers, inning contributions at both the major and minor league level, DVS Score (if available), and injury history.

Regardless of how great their pitching arsenal may be or how talented they are, I wanted to simplistically look at the pitchers contributions from an time and innings perspective. Are these players providing future value for the Tigers and fulfilling the initial investment made with these top draft selections?

The pitch arsenal of a pitcher can be developed and value increased, but the value of that arsenal is zero if they never make it to the MLB level or are too hurt to pitch.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

24 total pitchers are highlighted above. Tarik Skubal was added for current relevancy.
Since 2013, the group have currently yielded 1,095 IP of value at the MLB Level.
$37 million in signing bonuses, $33K per MLB inning.
9 of 24 (37%) pitchers have pitched at least 1 inning at the MLB level.
6 of 24 (25%) pitchers had surgery on their throwing arm while playing for the Tigers.
12 of 24 (50%) pitchers have suffered at least 1 throwing arm injury while playing for the Tigers.

As young pitching prospects spend time developing, the MLB team has to sign notable free agents to help the team compete year after year. Below are several notable free agent pitchers the Tigers front office signed before and after the start of their analytics era.

Many factors go into the acquisition of a free agent pitcher to help the success of the team. One of the most important factors in signing a pitcher to a short or long-term deal should be that player’s current and future risk for their contracts duration. If a pitcher may be at high or moderate risk, the decision to sign that pitcher to a short or long term deal is easier if the pitching development within the organization can help decrease that risk.

In the notable acquisitions table above, I referenced the bigger names the Tigers signed or acquired since 2015.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Jordan Zimmerman was paid over $90 million dollars to pitch 513 MLB innings. $27 million was paid while he was on the injured list.
Michael Fulmer has an extensive injury history, starting with the Mets organization. His latest DVS Score of 11 indicates he continues to be high risk.
Matt Boyd contributed valuable innings to the Tigers but never matured into a front-line starter and his career with the Tigers ended with an elbow surgery in 2021.
Tyson Ross, Julio Teheran, Matt Moore, and Jose Urena had a combined salary of $14,500,000 and collectively only pitched 150 innings for the Tigers. $96,000 dollars per inning. They were all signed to 1 year deals.

TIGERS ANALYTICS

The Tigers began their analytic era in 2016 by hiring key staff members to build the initial foundation of their analytics department, including Jay Sartori and Sam Menzin, now both Assistant General Managers. In the Detroit Free Press, Anthony Fenech wrote an article about the infusion of "Caesar," an analytical database that houses all the Tiger's information.

In the article, Tigers general manager Al Avila says, "We will be hiring several more people in that area that will basically just be doing the calculations, mathematics, and formulas that they create to help us make better decisions, which is not in place right now and hasn't been. In reality, it's in its infancy right now."

Several weeks before the article was published, we met with key Detroit Tigers front office members, including Al Avila, David Chadd, Jay Sartori, and Sam Menzin. We were there to pitch our IR (Injury Risk) Model as a decision-making tool to help save the Tigers millions of dollars by avoiding signing pitchers that were at high risk with the probability of a significant throwing injury occurring during the term of their contract. DVS Baseball was also in its infancy, but we knew we had an IR Model that could genuinely help. Unfortunately, we outpriced ourselves in that meeting, and nothing formally matured.

Our move was a short distance. From 2016 to current, we have infused our IR Model and pitching development system at Jimmy Johns Field, home of the United Shore Professional Baseball League, just 26 miles from Comerica Park. Since 2016, the USPBL has had two pitchers suffer major throwing injuries while helping 30 pitchers sign contracts with MLB Organization. None of 30 contracts were with the Tigers.

A pitcher can be signed from the USPBL and realistically make it to the big leagues. For example, Randy Dobnak, a former Utica Unicorn was signed by Billy Milos of the Twins and made his MLB Debut in 2019. Another USPBL alumni, Randy Wynne, who is currently pitching in AAA of the Reds Organization, will likely make his MLB debut this season.

Our focus in pitching development while in the USPBL has been to use analytics (IR Model) to make pitchers aware of the timing issues within their pitching delivery, coach them through the necessary corrections, and give them time to fix the problems. If we just used our IR Model to make decisions, we wouldn't be able to fill rosters. Many pitchers don't sequence well and are likely to experience injury sooner rather than later if left unadjusted. We take the stance that the potential injury will happen under our watch if we don't make changes. The "analytics" support this stance. Our database, dating back sixty years ago, proves through analysis of thousands of pitchers that if you sequence better, you can extend your career. The graphic below is a simple illustration of Tigers pitchers who have been often injured vs. Tigers pitchers who were able to stay healthy for extended periods.

“any pitchers don’t sequence well and are likely to experience injury sooner rather than later if left unadjusted. We take the stance that the potential injury will happen under our watch if we don’t make changes. The “analytics” support this stance. Our database, dating back sixty years ago, proves through analysis of thousands of pitchers that if you sequence better, you can extend your career. ”

— Justin Orenduff

The job descriptions of a baseball pitcher hasn't changed since the beginning of baseball's inception: get-outs. How a pitcher gets an out can be done in various ways, but the ability of the pitcher to get outs consistently and allowing the team to win across an extended period, is of most value both to the player and the team.

The pitcher's body and arm job description are to help the long-term facilitation to get outs. Take it from the most revered pitcher in baseball history, Sandy Koufax. Koufax says, "Everybody who performs an athletic event of any kind is a system of levers. You can't alter what the bones do if you can make the bones work, the injuries to the soft tissue will be a lot less. It's when guys are in bad positions, and now they try to make the muscles do something to compensate for the bad positions that they injure themselves.”

“Everybody who performs an athletic event of any kind is a system of levers. You can’t alter what the bones do if you can make the bones work, the injuries to the soft tissue will be a lot less. It’s when guys are in bad positions, and now they try to make the muscles do something to compensate for the bad positions that they injure themselves. ”

— Sandy Koufax

ALL ABOUT SEQUENCING

MLB Network profile on Casey Mize prior to the 2018 MLB Draft

The number one way to extend a pitcher’s career and delay the onset of a potential injury is to change, enhance, manipulate the movement quality (sequencing) of their pitching delivery. It’s all about sequencing. Don’t wait for the injury to happen, prevent it before it happens. To do this, you have to have a plan in place to help foster better sequencing amongst the pitchers. The problem, what one organization may deem as “good mechanics” can vary wildly from another. Just look at the image on MLB Network saying Casey Mize has an “athletic and clean delivery.” Casey Mize has an 11 DVS Score (very high risk) and has been since Auburn.

Let’s take a closer look at his delivery and illustrate a few key points as it relates to his sequence.

Casey Mize

INJURY RISK FACTOR INTO ARM SWING AND ARM ACCELERATION
Prior to Casey’s rear hip rotating, his wrist extends above his throwing elbow too soon. This breakdown in sequence eventually forces the throwing wrist, elbow, and shoulder to maximally external rotate too far away from Casey’s spine which results in unwanted stress each throw.

Michael Fulmer

INJURY RISK FACTOR IN ARM SWING INTO ARM ACCELERATION
Michael Fulmer’s throwing elbow extends above his throwing shoulder too soon and too far, causing early shoulder capsule tension, which is then results in an arm action similar to Casey Mize above.

Casey Mize

INJURY RISK FACTOR IN DECELERATION OF THROWING ARM
After ball release, the throwing shoulder of Mize never fully extend and decelerate to the opposite hip and violently stop before the trunk/arm can fully decelerate. The result is a bad combination of increased risk during the external rotation combined with an unsupported finish which places him exponentially more at risk of an arm injury.

If any pitcher has one major throwing arm injury, they are 44.96% more at risk for a second major throwing arm injury. Typically, minor injuries manifest themselves before the major reveals itself. It’s up to MLB Teams to protect their investments and develop the proper sequencing of their pitchers if they expect to have a better return on their investment. If you simply monitor the ongoing health of the pitcher and treat as needed, the injury will happen.

Justin Verlander

EXAMPLE OF GOOD SEQUENCING INTO ARM SWING AND ARM ACCELERATION
Justin Verlander just eclipsed 3000 innings and his sequencing as his rear hip rotates to bring his throwing forearm up into a vertical orientation is a large contributing factor to the throwing arm not undergoing excessive stress prior to acceleration. In this clip, look at the drastic difference between the Mize and Fulmer clip above.

CONCLUSION

Overall, any player development strategy needs to be functional for the long-term success of the player and the franchise. Working in harmony can yield value for everyone involved. Each year payrolls may vary, but the ability to develop more young pitching prospects into being capable of pitching in the big leagues and stay healthy can stabilize a franchise. I have never understood the "rebuilding phase". I think that shows a lack of depth and success/integration between scouting and player development. The Tigers were awful from 2000 to 2004, but in 2004 they were given a gift.

In 2004, the Detroit Tigers drafted future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander with the #3 overall pick. From 2005 to 2017, Verlander pitched more than 2,500 innings before being traded to the Houston Astros. The success and value "JV" brought to the Detroit Tigers was delivered season after season due to Verlander being healthy and available to pitch. Many new modern-day pitching metrics can quantify the value "JV" brought to the Tigers organization from a numerical standpoint, but for the metrics to have any value, Verlander had to stay healthy, which he did. It isn't very reasonable to expect every first-round pick to have the stuff and similar career to that of Verlander. But when it comes to stabilizing a franchise, building a winning team, and creating excitement amongst fans, it happened when he was wearing a Tigers uniform.

The post-Verlander Analytic Tigers looks just like their 2000’s rebuild Tigers. Despite the "hype" about the armada of arms on the horizon. If the armada of arms can't stay healthy, how long will the Tigers remain in their rebuild? Hopefully, the revamped Tigers analytics and player development department can right the ship with Mize, Manning, Skubal, Faedo, Fulmer, but their current history and patterns suggest otherwise.