The Cost of Pitching Injuries
Pitching injuries continue to be a major driver in uncertainty, loss of performance, and dollars lost for Major League Baseball (MLB) organizations. According to data from Spotrac, 18,369 days were missed by pitchers on the injured list with a throwing-related injury in 2019, the last full season of Major League Baseball. That is equivalent to about 102 full pitcher seasons or just under one-third of all opening day pitchers missing the entire season. This translates into $318,667,058 total dollars lost for MLB clubs by paying pitchers unable to perform on the field.
This phenomenon creates uncertainty on the field and in the front office. Teams are constantly having to shuffle their pitching rotations as a result of injury. This is done either by bringing minor league players up to fill the gaps, players that are often unproven at the major league level, or acquiring a new player from the free agent or trade market. When a throwing-related injury occurs in a minor league prospect, the organization’s future plans for that player are impacted.
Pitching injuries also drive a marked loss in performance on the field. When a major league quality pitcher suffers a throwing-related injury, a team will often have to substitute that player for a replacement-level player, one that will usually perform worse than the injured player would have. When injuries occur to a minor league prospect, then that player may never develop to their potential.
MLB organizations also lose money when a player has a throwing-related injury. The pitcher’s salary is guaranteed, meaning they get paid whether they are available to perform or not. Making matters worse, organizations must then pay new players to play in the spot of the player who is injured. Also, when fan-favorites are unable to take the field it impacts enthusiasm and, in turn, team revenue. Further, organizations have already invested millions into the signing bonuses of top draft picks and injuries to those pitchers impact the return on investment.
So, what kind of injuries caused MLB pitchers to miss time in 2019? Spotrac data breaks down injuries by primary part of the body but not at any secondary level of detail. The figure below describes the counts of the major categories. There were 72 elbow injuries not resulting in a Tommy John surgery (18.7%), 115 non-arm injuries (29.8%), 93 arm injuries not specified as directly related to the elbow or shoulder joint (24.1%), 84 shoulder injuries (21.8%), and 22 Tommy John surgeries (5.7%). We expect that the vast majority of the other arm injuries are in fact related to a muscle, ligament, or tendon that connects to either the elbow or the shoulder. Throwing-related injuries account for 70.2% of all disable-list incidents in 2019.
The DVS Model shows that there is a relationship between a pitcher’s mechanics and their risk for major throwing-related arm injury. By using injury risk projections from the DVS injury risk model, an MLB organization can make smarter personnel and development decisions. The rest of this article focuses solely on the actual cost in 2019 to an MLB organization of throwing-related injuries in terms of days missed on the field and, in turn, dollars lost. The goal is to highlight the very real impact that throwing-related injuries are having on the thirty MLB organizations individually, an impact that can be mitigated through the use of the DVS injury risk model.
Cumulatively, 18,369 days were missed by pitchers on the injury list with a throwing-related injury in 2019 and that translates into $318,667,058 dollars lost by MLB clubs. The dollars lost are calculated by using prorated salary amounts owed to pitchers while missing playing time. The average number of days missed by pitchers in an MLB organization is 612.3 days. Let’s put this number in some context. The 612.3 days missed is the equivalent of about 3.4 full pitcher seasons or 28.3% of the season days (assuming a 12-member pitching staff and 180 days in a season). The average number of dollars lost by an MLB organization due to a throwing-related injury is $10,622,235. This overall cost, both in terms of player unavailability and salary paid to injured players, is significant.
Further, there is a wide disparity in the number of days missed and the total dollars lost by MLB organizations (see the two figures below). The number of days missed ranged from 111 days for the Minnesota Twins to 1259 for the San Diego Padres, and the number of dollars lost ranged from $1,132,148 for the Minnesota Twins to $28,502,308 for the Philadelphia Phillies. This disparity shows that some teams are getting an advantage over others in how often their pitchers are able to perform and how efficiently their dollars are being spent.
MLB organizations are currently dealing with a great deal of uncertainty, loss of performance, and dollars lost because of throwing-related arm injuries on their pitching staffs. This phenomenon was manifested differently in each organization in 2019, with some organizations fairing vastly better than others. Mitigating the effects of this problem through use of the DVS injury risk model would provide a decided advantage for an MLB organization in player decision-making and development.
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