Ranking the Top 50 2021 MLB Draft Prospects by DVS Score

I was once a former first-round pick in 2004. 219.5 innings later, I underwent major surgery on my throwing shoulder, getting 80% of my bicep tendon removed. My DVS Score at that time was between 6 to 10, fitting in retrospect. I was considered a safe draft choice, I checked all the boxes; Two time All-American, USA Collegiate National Team, and a history of success. The one box I didn't check was my pitching delivery and the extreme risk I was under every time I threw a baseball simply due to my mechanics – but no one knew this at the time.  

Major throwing injuries will continue to happen to pitchers, with the critical questions being how soon and how impactful? Pitchers are throwing harder than ever, especially the 2021 Top 50 draft-eligible pitchers. But, the harder you throw when you have a high injury risk, the quicker you arrive at a major throwing injury.  This article encompasses over eight years of data and correlations that need to be understood, accepted, and used as a tool to make decisions on what pitchers will have most value to an MLB Organization.

In 2015, I decided to analyze the Top 50 draft-eligible pitchers according to baseballamerica.com for the 2015 MLB Draft. I had just founded DVS Baseball, and most of the pitchers in our dataset were former and active major league pitchers. The average DVS Score of 2015 top 50 was 12.8, slightly higher compared to the active MLB pitcher (12.2) in our dataset at that time. The purpose of the analysis was to correlate trends in the DVS Score amongst a small sub-section of the best college baseball pitchers against our entire major league population.  We knew at the time that pitchers with a DVS Score of 12 or below were much more at risk of a major arm injury compared to a pitcher with a DVS Score of 13 or higher. Of the top 50 pitchers, we analyzed 49, and of the 49, 28 (57%) had a DVS Score of 12 or below.  

Before the 2016 MLB Draft, six of the Top 50 pitchers from the 2015 group had already undergone Tommy John surgery with a combined DVS Score of 11.8. Not exactly sure if that was normal or not, I did a small case study from all pitchers drafted in 2012 to see what injury correlations would be three years removed from the draft. The results were staggering; 46% of pitchers drafted in the 2012 First Round spent time on the DL due to a throwing-related injury. Of the 46%, 23% had surgery on their throwing shoulder or elbow.

Therefore, I decided to analyze the top 50 draft-eligible pitchers according to MLB.com for the 2016 draft. The numbers were again very similar. The average DVS Score for the 2016 class was 12.7, with 43% of pitchers having a DVS Score of 12 or below. Twenty-six of those pitchers from the 2016 class would spend time on the DL due to injury. Twenty pitchers would pitch in the MLB and ten of those would require Tommy John surgery, and 70% of those surgeries would be done before the end of 2017. 

Injuries are on the rise among professional pitchers. According to Spotrac data, in the 2017 season, 88 pitchers landed on the 60-day DL. In 2018, that number was 101 pitchers. In 2019, it rose to 118. As contracts cost teams more and more, organizations want to get the most production they can out of healthy players. Analyzing the 2021 Top 50 draft eligible pitchers, there is important data to consider regarding longevity in the 2021 MLB Draft.

The average DVS Score of the 2021 Top 50 is 13.4. This is 1.6 points above the 2015 class and 0.7 points above the 2016 class.  The distributions of DVS Scores between classes is fairly similar, aside from the slight increase in average DVS Score.

Our analysis of the Top 50 included the DVS Score and mechanical Injury Risk Coefficient. The six components of the DVS Score focus on the proper sequencing of the pitching delivery and account for major injury risk, velocity potential, and other factors.  Our previous Ranking of College World Series Pitchers article describes the DVS Score and its methodology in greater detail for those interested, but a summary is included below.

Our mechanical Injury Risk Coefficient is derived from our IR (injury risk) Model which is based on a dataset of players of over 1,500 professional pitchers.  Note that the mechanical Injury Risk Coefficient is based on the consideration of mechanics alone.  Our overall IR Model produces a risk analysis that is based on other factors as well, such as injury history.  For this draft analysis, the decision was made to use this simpler version of the Injury Risk Coefficient, which uses mechanics alone, for a variety of reasons such as lack of ready access to the injury histories of high school seniors.  An Injury Risk Coefficient of 1.00 indicates that each pitch thrown by a pitcher is exactly as at-risk as an average league pitcher for the occurrence of a major pitching arm injury. A pitcher like Jack Leiter with a Risk Coefficient of 0.78 is 22% less likely per pitch to suffer such an injury. Likewise, a prospect like Ryan Cusick has a Risk Coefficient of 1.42 and therefore a 42% greater risk per pitch on average. While there is a general positive relationship between DVS Scores and Risk Correlations, DVS Scores incorporate other factors that don’t relate to major injury risk that can cause similar DVS Scores to have varied Risk Coefficients. Among this group of players, the average Risk Coefficient was 1.13 – the group as a whole being 13% more at-risk than league average.

Seventeen pitchers in this class have a Risk Coefficient below 1.00. These pitchers range from an estimated pre-draft rank of 3 (Jack Leiter, drafted 2nd) to 122 (Calvin Ziegler). Likewise, some high-ranked pitching prospects are well above league average: Andrew Painter is ranked 17 with a Risk Coefficient of 1.34 and Anthony Solometo, ranked 20, has a Risk Coefficient of 2.34. The major concern teams have is the arm conditions of their prospects. Players could have had great careers up to this point, but still could be at great risk of a future major injury. Looking at these prospects in terms of DVS Score, the correlation between pre-draft prospect ranking and mechanical Injury Risk Coefficient becomes less clear. There are players ranked and drafted in the first and second rounds that have a concerning level of injury risk compared to their peers. There are also pitchers with sound mechanics who have the potential to be budget picks in the later rounds. Below is the 2021 Class Top 50 sorted by DVS Score.

With the first round of the MLB draft complete, we wanted to highlight some notable differences in drafted pitchers according to our analysis. The Detroit Tigers selected pitchers with their first and second picks: Jackson Jobe at 3rdoverall and Ty Madden at 32nd overall.  Ty Madden has about a 50% greater chance of major arm injury with each pitch than Jackson Jobe based on their pitching mechancis.  Jobe was the better value pick.  The Tiger should invest time into player development with Ty Madden to maximize his potential.

This article provides a list of DVS Scores and mechanical Injury Risk Coefficients for the 2021 Top 50 pitching prospects according to MLB.com.The pitching injury epidemic in professional baseball continues to get worse.Top pitching prospects from 2015 and 2016 have seen major injuries set back their development or prevent them from reaching their full potential.Although DVS Scores in 2021 top pitching prospects are slightly higher than in 2015 and 2016, these pitchers are still carrying a degree of injury risk due to mechanics that is 13% higher than the current MLB average.MLB organizations are set to again make significant financial investments into top pitching prospects this year.These pitching prospects have vastly different levels of injury risk, creating opportunities for teams to get good value in a given round.Using the DVS IR Model gives an MLB organization the best chance at maximizing their financial investment into a draft pick.