MLB Draft Perspective: Assessing Paul Skenes, Rhett Lowder, Chase Dollander, and Bobby Miller
Introduction
The MLB Draft is an exciting time for baseball fans and organizations, as teams seek to acquire the top talent to bolster their rosters. In recent years, drafting starting pitchers among the top picks has proven to be a risky endeavor. In this article, we will analyze the projected top pitchers in this year's draft, namely Paul Skenes, Rhett Lowder, and Chase Dollander, while also drawing comparisons to the success of previous pitchers, including Bobby Miller. We will examine key statistics and a novel risk assessment metric called DVS Score to evaluate the potential of these young pitchers.
The Risk of Drafting Starting Pitchers
Over the past decade, the success rate of top pitchers drafted and signed as #1 or #2 starters in the MLB has been alarmingly low, standing at a mere 1.4%. These findings, presented in the case study "The Decline of MLB Starting Pitchers," highlight the importance of considering a pitcher's accumulated professional innings as a gauge of their long-term health and success.
Cumulative MLB Innings Correlations
Examining the cumulative MLB innings correlations provides valuable insights into the challenges faced by starting pitchers. The statistics reveal a gradual decline in the number of pitchers who have reached significant milestones in terms of innings pitched:
0 to 100 innings: 10.4%
≥ 200 innings: 6%
≥ 300 innings: 4.3%
≥ 400 innings: 2.5%
≥ 500 innings: 1.9%
≥ 1000 innings: 0.6%
200 or more MLB innings in a single season: 7
Consecutive 200 MLB innings per season: 2
These numbers demonstrate the difficulties pitchers encounter in maintaining a consistent and durable presence on the mound.
The Cost of Injured Pitchers
MLB organizations have suffered substantial financial losses, with nearly 3 billion dollars spent on injured pitchers since 2015. Astonishingly, this equates to approximately 10% of a team's annual payroll. The decline in the number of pitchers maintaining at least 200 MLB innings per season has further exacerbated this issue, with only four pitchers achieving this feat in 2021 compared to an average of 44 per season from 1990 to 2011.
Assessing Skenes, Lowder, Dollander, and Miller
While Skenes, Lowder, and Dollander are highly touted prospects, their DVS Scores, a risk evaluation metric, fall within the high-risk category (scores of 11 or below). This classification underscores the challenges they may face in terms of durability and long-term success. However, each player possesses unique qualities that warrant careful consideration.
Paul Skenes, the Potential #1 Overall Pick
Given his projected status as a top pick, Skenes could be an attractive choice for the Pittsburgh Pirates as the #1 overall selection. If he passes the medical evaluations, it would be wise for the Pirates to promptly integrate him into their MLB roster, maximizing their initial investment. To enhance Skenes' longevity without altering his core pitching style, a strategy involving two simple adjustments to his pitching sequence could potentially reduce his risk by over 30% and raise his DVS Score to at least 14 by the start of the 2024 season.
Rhett Lowder and Chase Dollander: Caution is Key
In contrast to Skenes, the case of Bobby Miller, drafted 29th overall by the LA Dodgers in 2020, offers a cautionary tale. Miller, possessing a larger frame and a significantly higher DVS Score, has already experienced success at the MLB level. Whether this success can be attributed to the Dodgers' system, Miller's own skills, or a combination of both, it serves as a compelling reason to exercise caution with Lowder and Dollander and potentially seek their talents in later rounds of the draft to avoid their hefty price tags.
Conclusion
As the MLB Draft approaches, teams must carefully weigh the risks and rewards associated with drafting starting pitchers. While Skenes, Lowder, and Dollander show promise, their risk profiles indicate potential challenges in their professional careers. Understanding the historical trends and leveraging risk assessment metrics like the DVS Score can help teams make informed decisions when investing in young pitching talent. Ultimately, striking a balance between maximizing immediate contributions and long-term durability will be vital in shaping the success of these pitchers and their respective organizations.
