Innings Lost: The Crisis Facing High School Pitchers Today

In my ongoing research, analyzing the top 3 pitchers drafted and signed by each MLB organization since 2013, a staggering 217 pitchers (21%) have undergone arm surgery. Among these, 75 were high school pitchers, and the data reveals an alarming trend.

For these high school pitchers, the average professional innings pitched before surgery is a mere 126. Even more concerning, 53% of these surgeries occur before they reach 100 innings, and 80% before hitting 200 innings. In six cases, pitchers underwent surgery before throwing a single professional inning.

By contrast, college pitchers average 317 innings, including their college workload, before facing surgery—a significant difference.

Additionally, 15 high school pitchers had already undergone surgery before they were drafted, a clear sign of the growing issue we face in youth baseball. These numbers reflect the culture that is shaping young pitchers, one that emphasizes velocity and rankings over long-term health and durability.

I’ve included a slideshow that highlights several high school pitchers in this study, alongside their Perfect Game profiles. These profiles often emphasize velocity and national rankings, but I’ve added a crucial data point: the number of innings they pitched before requiring arm surgery. This visual underscores just how quickly some of the most highly ranked young arms are breaking down.

From 2013 to 2019, the average innings pitched before surgery for both high school and college pitchers stood at 311. However, since 2019, that number has dropped to just 168 innings—a 45% increase in surgeries over the past five years.

What’s driving this alarming trend?

The conversation around arm injuries cannot be separated from the environment in which these pitchers are developed. Showcase baseball has become a dominant force, with young pitchers focusing on velocity and rankings to boost their draft stock or secure college scholarships. Unfortunately, this often comes at the expense of developing the endurance and mechanics needed to thrive in a traditional starter's role.

Young pitchers are being conditioned to light up radar guns, not to accumulate innings. They are trained to prioritize short-term results rather than the long-term health needed to become a durable, reliable starter.

While some pitchers do make it through, overcoming surgery to contribute significant innings at the MLB level—Logan Webb (834 IP), Justin Steele (477 IP), and Hunter Greene (381 IP) are notable examples—many careers are derailed before they truly begin.

The fact that Major League Baseball (MLB) is now considering a 6-inning minimum for starting pitchers speaks volumes about the current state of pitching. It reflects a generation of arms shaped by a culture obsessed with velocity and rankings, often at the cost of health, durability, and career longevity.

Moving Forward

We can’t blame the players for the culture they’ve been immersed in, but we must do better in helping them. We need more voices within communities—coaches, trainers, and mentors—to advocate for young pitchers’ overall well-being and to push back against trends that prioritize short-term performance over long-term health.

By fostering an environment where development is measured by sustainability and endurance, rather than velocity alone, we can begin to reverse this dangerous trend and help more young pitchers reach their potential without sacrificing their careers to injury.

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